A Retired Oil Man and the Future of Oil Prices

In the 50's we were told the world would be out of oil by 1980. In the 60's they said 1990. We've had global warming and iceage warnings repeated back and forth as long as I can remember. People used to be really educated and would disavow hysteria. Now, too many, including the media, just blindly follow hype, thinking they are educated, when in fact they just follow along and believe propaganda from one side or the other. FACT: Iran is hording oil. They have chartered numerous Ultra Large Crude Carriers (ULCC's) to store their oil. They claim they don't want to sell it to the USA. The USA doesn't buy Iranian oil. They refuse to trade in USDollars, preferring the ruble, yen and euro. The world market is slowing down (even China has price controls on oil) and there is a GLUT of oil available. If producers pinch the flow at the wells, the flow will not come back, and often damages the well. They won't do that. It would hurt them. In 1984 crude prices hit $50/bbl, increasing to that point over several years. In May of 84 the price crashed to $4/bbl, then rebounded and held near $12 till about 1998. In 1986, crude was put on the NYMEX to help prevent hostile govt's from holding us hostage on oil. The oil companies have no control over the price... NYMEX does. Now it is speculators and traders that hold us hostage. The market will soon change. There will be no place to store the oil and producers won't crash their wells. US refiners know this and are holding back purchasing, relying on Americans to do their part and conserve (mostly by necessity due to prices). My view: Watch for the fall of oil soon, but continue to conserve, and continue to explore new technology. We'll need it someday, even if there are trillions of barrels of oil left to produce. Why be held hostage by anyone.

Source:http://community.marketwatch.com/RetiredOilMan